For those of you who get tired of looking at boring economic indicators like GDP, debt ratios, and inflation, I decided that it would be beneficial to give you things to look for that will signal an economic recovery that don’t include hard data.
A lot of this is anecdotal and, as anecdotal evidence usually goes, should be looked at with a grain of salt. And in this case… you can look at it as tongue in cheek.
1) Cabs Will Be Harder to Come By
Recently, catching a cab has been as easy as catching a rerun of Law and Order. If you aren’t familiar with Law and Order, you can pretty much turn on your TV at any time and find an episode within an hour.
This is obviously a sign that people aren’t splurging on extraneous transportation. As people start to find comfort in their budgets they will start to spend more on things like late night pizzas and cabs. Cab demand will shoot up and thus supply will drop like a rock.
You will find yourself having to wave cabs down… again!
2) No More Travel Deals
For those of us who have saved money in “vacation funds,” this has been a great year. We originally set up vacation accounts for the sole purpose of ensuring a fun week and making sure not a cent of debt was incurred.
However, as the economy has slipped so have the prices of pretty much everything looked at as “luxurious.” Vacations?!
Pft, when I was a young kid I worked 368 days a year, 28 hours a day!
Well Grandpa, I envy that and am now booking my luxurious trip to the Caribbean…
The $1,000 you saved for vacation is now getting you 20% more in awesomeness… but it won’t last forever. Once you see the prices shooting back up, that may be a good sign that the travel industry is recovering, and thus the economy.
3) Walmart Exodus, Wegmans Influx
I love my local Walmart for it’s “everyday low prices.” You just can’t beat them. And so does everyone else… right now. When you need to slash your budget, Walmart usually comes into play as a tool to do that somewhere along the way. Need to cut the grocery budget? Walmart. The auto parts budget? Walmart. The electronics budget? Walmart. Clothing budget? Walmart. On and on.
However, once the economy starts recovering you will see an exodus of all of the people who were previously too good for Walmart. Brought to Walmart because of their new found economic hardship, they will return to Wegmans once their life as they formerly knew it returns.
Other stores that should see recovery? Macy’s, Banana Republic, Autozone, Best Buy, etc.
4) New Cars Will Cost More Than Used Cars
Right now you can find a bunch of new cars that are cheaper than their one year old counter-parts. Why? The car manufacturers are throwing price breaks, financing offers, and rebates at the consumer like their is no tomorrow. This is obviously a good situation for a car buyer to be in right now. I don’t need a car, but if I were buying today I would certainly consider some new models.
But this won’t last forever.
When you find yourself in a car dealership and the new car price is more than the used car price… you are late to the party, sorry (What, you thought that just happened in high school? Ah, memories!)!
5) Subway Ends Their $5 Footlongs
Obviously this is the one I fear the most!
I love Subway, I won’t deny that. Sometimes I get annoyed that they don’t put the cheese on correctly (the triangle cheese should be put on so that they are interlocking and their is no part of the sub that is cheese-less, but all Subway’s put it on so that it overlaps and some parts have a lot more cheese and some have none… I don’t get it!!), but alas I still do think they offer good deals. And if you make an effort, they can even be healthy.
But what happens when people have more money to spend and start going to Fridays for lunch again? Back to the normal prices! $8 footlongs? Pft!
6) Your “Coupons” Get Honored
What do I mean? Well… you will need to come back at 12:15 EST and check out my comic to see! :)
Anything Else?
There you have it… six ways that will signal the recession is ending that don’t rely on economic data!
Do you have anything else we should look for?
I'm MLR. After graduating from college debt free, I decided to write a blog encouraging people to adapt responsible and sensible personal finance rules.
May 1st, 2009 at 6:42 am |
I think the two true indicators out of your list are going to be Walmart and Subway. I will be sad to see the $5 FootLong Club go away though. It makes me happy. What is with the teaser.. Just post the comic and brighten my morning.
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May 1st, 2009 at 6:51 am |
I’m not going to consider the recession to be ending until the job market perks back up. I’ve been trying to improve my career and every month there are less and less jobs available. When that trend reverses I’ll believe that we are in a recovery.
I’ve also noticed that the local Best Buy appears to be dead. And it’s a brand new and very nice store. So I’m guessing when I start seeing more people there that might indicate the recession is lightening.
On the other hand as near as I can tell the recession has had absolutely no effect on the local shopping mall. Traffic may actually have gone up.
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May 4th, 2009 at 12:05 am |
@ Kyle –
Funny enough, anecdotally speaking, the cab situation is pretty true where I live. They always seem to be just sitting around (whereas they seemed like they were always being used before). But I guess that’s why its anecdotal, eh? And yeah, the $5 footlong makes my day. Sadly enough, haha.
@ Save Buy Live –
This post was made mainly in jest. I do agree about the job market, all indicators don’t matter until people are working.
As for the traffic at your local shopping mall… I would be curious to see if the shopper’s demographics changed. Or if the stores that people are purchasing from changed (e.g. Banana Republic sales down, Old Navy sales up).
Thank you both for the comments! Look forward to seeing you around!
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May 11th, 2009 at 4:26 pm |
You set off my Rochesterian alarm by mentioning WEGMANS! I <3 Wegmans and will shop there no matter what the economic climate. I hope they’re doing well, despite – they’ve done a lot to accommodate people during this recession (lowered prices, free antibiotics, cheap generics…).
I wish this comment had more to add, but I see the name Wegmans and I just can’t help myself – I’m a hardcore Wegmans fan.
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May 12th, 2009 at 12:17 am |
@ Stephanie –
Haha! I do like shopping there, too. I noticed the lowered prices. Didn’t know about the free antibiotics, though. That is awesome!
And it’s ok… I understand. Thanks for shouting out to the WG. ;)
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May 13th, 2009 at 4:35 pm |
I thought the recession was supposed to be over when Congress spent $800 billion a couple of months ago . . . :)
rocketc’s last blog post..Ronald Reagan on National Healthcare
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May 13th, 2009 at 7:26 pm |
@ Rocket C –
We must have been reading different newspapers. Was yours titled “O’ Reily Times?”
In all seriousness, as my sentiment goes in the last post…
“You seem to not understand that basic tenet of economics. GDP = C + I + G + (X-I).
If you can answer me how we can stabilize or increase GDP when C and I are down, then we can move forward in this conversation.”
Economists on the left and right agree to that. If you can also agree to that, we can move on to constructive criticism of WHAT to spend the money on.
MLR
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June 27th, 2009 at 11:36 pm |
I found your blog on google and read a few of your other posts. I just added you to my Google News Reader. Keep up the good work. Look forward to reading more from you in the future.
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August 12th, 2010 at 1:39 pm |
How about when we start seeing gas station attendents, waiters and everyone else back into flipping real estate and daytrading. Then we will be back to “normal”. Just kidding.
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